[SMM Weekly Review of Nickel Ore Market] Philippine ore prices remain unchanged; Indonesia's local saprolite ore premiums fall

Philippine nickel ore prices remain stable; downstream acceptance of high-priced nickel ore is limited amid smelter losses

This week, the FOB prices of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, and domestic transaction prices also held steady temporarily. The CIF price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (NI1.3%) shipped to China was $46-47/wmt, and the FOB price was $37-38/wmt; the CIF price of NI1.5% was $59-61/wmt, and the FOB price was $52-53/wmt. In terms of supply and demand, on the supply side, although there was precipitation at major nickel ore loading points in the Philippines, the continuous rainfall during the week significantly impacted the loading progress of nickel mines, with loading progress generally delayed compared to expectations. On the demand side, the NPI price continued to fall this week, and domestic NPI smelters still faced severe losses, dampening the sentiment for raw material purchases. The support from the demand side for nickel ore prices continued to weaken. Looking ahead, influenced by multiple factors such as the decline in Indonesia's local nickel ore prices this week, the continuous losses of downstream smelters, and the limited willingness to purchase at high prices, Philippine nickel ore prices may weaken.

Indonesian nickel ore prices have changed this week, with saprolite ore prices showing a downward trend

The prices of Indonesia's local nickel ore have fallen this week. In terms of premiums, the mainstream premium for Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore has dropped to $24-26/wmt this week. Currently, the SMM delivery-to-factory price for Indonesia's local 1.6% laterite nickel ore is $50.9-54.9/wmt, a decrease of $2.5 WoW. For limonite ore prices, the SMM delivery-to-factory price for Indonesia's local 1.3% laterite nickel ore remained stable at $26-28/wmt, unchanged from last week. On the supply side of saprolite ore, as Sulawesi and Halmahera are the main nickel ore mining regions, the supply situation during the week was still disrupted by frequent precipitation, with the mining and transportation processes of some mines hindered. Nevertheless, the approval of some supplementary RKAB quotas may be advanced. After entering July, the progress of RKAB approvals may accelerate. From the demand side, due to continued high operating losses, most Indonesian NPI smelters find it difficult to bear the sustained high premiums. Overall, although Indonesia's saprolite ore is in a tight state, downstream enterprises continue to exert pressure to reduce premiums to ensure affordable nickel ore purchases. The HMA prices for the first half of July have already fallen. Looking ahead, there is still downside room for prices in July.

On the supply side of limonite ore, supported by the inventory accumulated over several months following the QMB accident in March, the current supply of limonite ore in Sulawesi remains relatively stable, meeting current market demand. However, it should be noted that the rainy season continues in Sulawesi and Halmahera. If it persists into Q3, it may trigger supply risks. On the demand side, two major HPAL projects are expected to commence production in H2 this year, which may significantly boost market demand. Therefore, there is still demand for limonite ore. Looking ahead, the prices of Indonesia's limonite ore are more likely to rise than fall.